| When looking at a potential course of action, most | | | | taking out insurance, having the car inspected before |
| people are torn between two positions: an eagerness | | | | purchase, and so on. Once these have been |
| to do something better and a fear of failure. Sadly, | | | | determined, then you can determine the gains of |
| most people choose to emphasize the fear of failure. | | | | having a new car, such as increased transportation |
| This is the driving force behind insurance, behind the | | | | reliability, increased mileage, reduction of breakdown |
| "CYA" maneuvers, and behind procrastination. The | | | | events, and so on. Based on the comparison of |
| saying "Taking care of number one" is an expression | | | | these two categories (risk and gain), the decision to |
| of fear for myself over whatever is being proposed. | | | | act can be made. |
| A student who operates from a fear of failure will | | | | Risk in Education |
| often times receive exactly what she is fearing. | | | | While it is relatively easy to make this calculation |
| An attitude of willingness to try is necessary for an | | | | when considering whether to buy a car, making an |
| adult student. Unlike grade school, in adult education | | | | effort like becoming an adult student is much more |
| the possibility of failure must be accepted but not | | | | difficult. The problem is that the factors are not as |
| given a controlling influence. A student must be willing | | | | clearly defined, in most cases, so the numbers are |
| to learn new ideas, new techniques, and new | | | | not as understandable. Instead, one is faced with an |
| philosophies. The student must be willing to listen to | | | | unknown future, which makes for decisions based on |
| the instructor and to do things the way the | | | | emotion rather than factual evidence. So, while risk |
| instructor says rather than the way he has done it in | | | | management is useful in many cases, most people |
| the past. Trying out something new should be the | | | | abandon it when faced with life altering decisions. |
| norm for students, not something different. | | | | They feel they cannot make a rational decision, so |
| Understanding Risk | | | | they make an emotional decision, and that means |
| To accomplish anything worthwhile, there must be | | | | that the stronger emotion controls the decision. |
| risk. Risk can be measured by two factors: how likely | | | | Cultural Emotion |
| failure is and how much of an impact failure would | | | | Once the decision enters the emotional stage, the |
| have. These two factors can be determined in any | | | | history and social culture become a very strong |
| number of ways, from a numerical scale to a scale of | | | | influence. Our society currently emphasizes the |
| condition such as "High", "Medium", and "Low." | | | | negative results rather than the positive results, |
| What I have found to be useful is a numerical scale | | | | which can lead to a darker picture than it should. This |
| from 1 to 10. The two factors are given a numerical | | | | emphasis can be seen by the prevalence of news |
| rating, with 1 being minimal and 10 being maximal. The | | | | stories, the use of insurance, the incessant clamor of |
| risk factor is the product of these two numbers, | | | | disclaimers, and the use of negative statistics. |
| generating a number from 1 to 100. The goal of risk | | | | However, this picture is unnecessarily negative. By |
| management is to reduce the risk factor. This can be | | | | managing the risk, positive results are often the norm |
| done by either reducing the possibility of failure or by | | | | rather than the exception. For example, most |
| reducing its impact or both. | | | | insurance policies do not have claims made against |
| Once the risk factor has been determined, then the | | | | them. Most products and manufacturers are not |
| gain factor must be determined. In financial terms, | | | | taken to court, meaning that the role of disclaimers is |
| this comparison is called the return on risk ratio. After | | | | negated. Most people, particularly in the USA, are |
| this ratio is determined, the person can then decide, | | | | leading lives with a higher standard of living than ever |
| based on reality, whether to act or not. | | | | before. By looking at the evidence, a person should |
| For example, say you are looking at buying a new | | | | have a positive expectation rather than a negative |
| car. Some of the risks involved are that the car will | | | | one when considering a new action. |
| break down after you buy it, that you will not be | | | | In School |
| able to make the payments, and that the car will be | | | | If you believe that life is positive, then you are willing |
| stolen. In each case, you can determine how likely it | | | | to take chances. You are willing to try something |
| is that the problem will occur; for purposes, you | | | | new, something different. The willingness is only |
| determine the likelihood of the car breaking down is | | | | enhanced by the presence of the instructor, who is |
| 4, the chance of you not making the payments is 1, | | | | leading you into this new area. By trying a new idea |
| and the chance the car is stolen is 6. The impact of | | | | or a new technique, the student gains experience |
| each of these can be determined as well; for the car | | | | and can make better use of opportunities in the |
| breaking down, the impact is 3 (the time and money | | | | future. Furthermore, trying something new in school is |
| of repairs), for not making the payments 3 (credit | | | | much less riskier (because of the reduced impact) |
| rating), and for the car being stolen 4 (the price of | | | | than at work or in life, so the rewards are that much |
| the car). To manage these risks, you can do things | | | | more likely to occur. |
| to mitigate both the chance and the impact, such as | | | | |